The chip controls
Five years of export policy, and the supply chain it produced.
Updated 23 August 2026 · 5 events
How we got here
Semiconductor policy began as a subsidy question and became a control question. The instruments changed faster than the industry could reorganise around them.
Each round of controls produced a workaround, and each workaround produced a narrower round of controls. The result is a rule set that is now more specific than most corporate compliance functions were built to handle.
The convergence of three jurisdictions this month is the first time the rules overlap rather than merely coexist.
What changed
Companies stopped optimising for cost and started optimising for jurisdiction. That is a change in the objective function of an entire industry.
Key events
- First control package
- Extension to design tooling
- Convergence of three regimes
Key people
- Hana Sato
- Trade ministries
- Industry associations
Where things stand
One accelerator class now has no straightforward legal export path between the three jurisdictions. Licence exceptions are the remaining variable.
What happens next
- 01How licence exceptions are applied in the first quarter
- 02Whether a fourth jurisdiction aligns
- 03Capacity announcements outside the three regimes
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