The rate cycle
The tightening that was supposed to be short.
Updated 23 August 2026 · 4 events
How we got here
The cycle began with a diagnosis of transitory inflation and a plan measured in quarters. It has run for years and outlived three sets of projections.
Each plateau was framed as the last. The revision this week extends the plateau again, and the projection table is now doing more work than the statement.
Duration is the variable that matters. Every institution with a refinancing calendar is now planning around a curve that refuses to fall.
What changed
The market stopped trading the next decision and started trading the shape of the curve two years out.
Key events
- Transitory framing
- Start of tightening
- Extension of the plateau
Key people
- Daniel Okonkwo
- Policy committee
Where things stand
Benchmark unchanged for a fourth meeting; projections revised later.
What happens next
- 01Next inflation print
- 02Fiscal assumptions in the autumn budget
- 03Refinancing calendars in emerging markets
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